1.Real estate sales restoration&continuous destocking of glass,recommended opportunities for glass bottom
At present,orders from downstream processing plants are gradually improving,and the demand for glass is supported by replenishment in demand.At the same time,driven by the rise in glass prices,production and sales in most regions are still maintaining a good level,except for shipments in southern China,which are generally affected by rainy weather.This week,the trend of glass factory inventory continued to decline,with a nationwide inventory of 54.76 million weight boxes,a decrease of 6.6%compared to the previous week;Under the support of hard demand,prices continued to recover,with the spot price of glass this week reaching 1811.46 yuan/ton,a month on month increase of 1.5%.Although the progress of the guaranteed delivery building has been weaker than expected,the overall trend of gradual repair is maintained.With the gradual landing of the second installment of guaranteed delivery building funds and the support of high construction area,the completion of 2023Q2 is expected to continue to improve,and glass prices still have upward momentum in the short term.In the medium to long term,with the continuous production of 5 million tons of natural alkali and 3 million tons of hydrazine alkali from June to September 2023,the profitability elasticity is expected to accelerate.However,it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the elasticity of demand release in the second half of the year and the pace of glass manufacturers resuming production.Beneficial targets:Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group.Benefiting from the concentrated release of just needed and newly renovated properties,real estate sales continued to recover.From January to March 2023,the sales of China's top 100 real estate enterprises reached 1759 billion yuan,an increase of 8.2%year-on-year;In March 2023,sales increased by 24.6%year-on-year and 36.7%month on month,but continued attention needs to be paid to the sustainability of sales recovery.Against the backdrop of relaxed policies on the epidemic,accelerated repair of real estate sales,and accelerated pace of fiscal pre emption,priority is given to recommending consumer building materials enterprises that plan to expand their retail and engineering businesses in advance.The beneficiaries are:(1)Dongfang Yuhong and Sankeshu,which have greater resilience in performance repair.Benefiting from the rebound in real estate sales and their own channel layout,infrastructure engineering and retail performance have achieved strong expectations,and there has been no peak of the epidemic after the holiday,The performance is expected to exceed expectations.(2)Weixing New Materials,which operates steadily and deeply engages in retail business,has shown strong resilience in the context of the real estate downturn cycle.In 2023,the scale of newly added special bonds increased year-on-year and significantly advanced,and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate.In addition to the continuous increase in financial support and special bond support,the country has set the main goal of"prioritizing support for projects under construction and quickly forming physical workload",and infrastructure projects are expected to accelerate their implementation.Beneficial targets:Shangfeng Cement,Huaxin Cement,Hailuo Cement,Dongfang Yuhong,Keshun Co.,Ltd.,and Weixing New Materials.In the era of"dual carbon",wind power and photovoltaic have become important pathways for low-carbon energy transformation.Benefiting from policy dividends and industrial technology iteration,the landscape of the industrial chain is expected to significantly improve.In 2023 or the year of photovoltaic and wind power installation,carbon fiber,photovoltaic glass,and fiberglass will continue to benefit from the growth of demand.Beneficial targets:Guangwei Composite Materials,Zhongfu Shenying,Qibin Group,Fulite,China Jushi,Zhongcai Technology,Jinjing Technology,and Yaopi Glass.
2.Market Review
This week(2023.3.27-2023.3.31,the same below),the building materials index fell 1.92%,the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.59%,and the building materials index underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.51 percentage points.In the past three months,the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen by 4.19%,the Building Materials Index has risen by 1.12%,and the building materials sector has underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 3.07 percentage points.In the past year,the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has fallen by 6.04%,the building materials index has fallen by 17.28%,and the building materials sector has underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 11.24 percentage points.
3.Segment data tracking
Cement:As of April 1st,the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 387.72 yuan/ton,a slight decrease of 0.53%compared to the previous month;The price difference between cement and coal is 236.79 yuan/ton,a month on month increase of 0.18%;The national clinker storage capacity ratio was 56.68%,with a month on month increase of 2.81 pct.
Glass:As of April 1st,the average spot price of float glass nationwide was 1811.46 yuan/ton,a month on month increase of 27.39 yuan/ton,or 1.54%;The average price of photovoltaic glass is 159.38 yuan per weight box,which remains unchanged compared to the previous month.The oil price difference between float glass,soda ash,and coke is 25.80 yuan/weight box,an increase of 25.49%compared to the previous month;The price difference between float glass,soda ash,and heavy oil is 16.54 yuan/weight box,an increase of 23.35%compared to the previous month;The price difference between float glass,soda ash,and natural gas is 21.46 yuan/weight box,an increase of 5.37%month on month;The price difference between photovoltaic glass,soda ash,and natural gas is 89.94 yuan/weight box,a decrease of 1.95%month on month.
Glass fiber:As of March 30th,the mainstream factory price of alkali free 2400#winding direct yarn ranges from 3800 to 4200 yuan/ton,the mainstream price of SMC composite yarn 2400tex is 4600 to 5200 yuan/ton,and the mainstream price of jet composite yarn 2400tex is 6600 to 7600 yuan/ton.
