At present,glass still faces high inventory pressure,and downstream deep processing order data shows limited improvement in actual demand for glass.If the glass factory returns to the accumulation pace in the future,the disk will continue to be under pressure.
In March,the real estate market is showing signs of a bright future.The transactions of new and second-hand houses in key cities continue to improve,and the market's strong expectations for real estate are rising again.Futures traders are driving restocking in the middle and lower reaches,and glass factories are experiencing explosive production and sales.Inventory is significantly depleted,and the market is beginning to strengthen.However,due to the impact of overseas macro risk shocks and the average order data of downstream deep processing enterprises,on March 16th,a negative line on the glass plate reversed its previous gains.Although the central bank's reserve requirement reduction boosted market sentiment last Friday night and saw a rebound in the market,market panic continued on Monday and glass fell under pressure.
Glass deep processing orders do not match popular production and sales
In early March,the production and sales of glass factories began to improve.Starting from the Shahe region,the production and sales of mainstream regions such as Hubei and East China gradually reached a balance,and the glass factories quickly shipped,relieving inventory pressure to some extent.The improvement in production and sales of glass factories is due to two reasons:on the one hand,the continuous price reduction of glass factories has basically reached the psychological price level of hoarding in the middle and lower reaches.Futures traders and traders are the first to start buying goods,and spot prices have stopped falling and rising,stimulating further downstream purchases;On the other hand,high-frequency data on real estate sales show that the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities continued to improve in February.Strong market expectations for real estate recovery have revived,and market sentiment has risen,stimulating demand for goods in the middle and lower reaches.Production and sales continue to improve,and the inventory of glass factories has significantly decreased for two consecutive weeks.According to data from Longzhong Information,the inventory of glass factories decreased from a high of 82.237 million heavy boxes on March 3 to 72.601 million heavy boxes on March 17,a decrease of nearly 12%.
Although the production and sales of glass are booming,with obvious destocking and a rise in market share,when it comes to real demand,the orders for deep processing of glass do not match the production and sales data.According to the data on the number of order days of national deep processing sample enterprises,as of mid March 2023,the number of order days of deep processing enterprises was 12.9 days,an increase of only 0.7 days compared to February 28,a month on month increase of 5.74%,far less than the same period in previous years.This data to some extent reflects that the demand for glass is lower than market expectations,and the destocking during this period is likely only a transfer of upstream inventory to the midstream,with little transmission to the terminal.The expectation of a recovery in demand for glass has been temporarily falsified,and there is a possibility of high inventory continuing to accumulate,leading to a downward pressure on market prices.
Domestic economic stabilization and recovery coexist with overseas financial risk shocks
On March 15th,the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data from January to February 2023,showing a year-on-year increase of 2.4%in the added value of industries above designated size;National fixed assets investment(excluding farmers)was 5357.7 billion yuan,up 5.5%year on year;The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 7706.7 billion yuan,a year-on-year increase of 3.5%;The national investment in real estate development reached 1366.9 billion yuan,a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%;Real estate development enterprises have invested 2133.1 billion yuan,a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%;The sales area of commercial housing is 151.33 million square meters,a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%.Although the overall macro data in China is positive for market sentiment,there have also been risk shocks from overseas markets.Bank risk events have occurred in the United States and Europe one after another.Although the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has slowed down,the economic recession in Europe and America and the uncertainty of overseas demand have increased.Global risk aversion has accelerated,risky assets have adjusted under pressure,and crude oil has accelerated to decline,driving the continuous decline of domestic non-ferrous,chemical and black sectors,and glass has also declined.
In summary,the upward trend of glass suddenly came to an end,and the poor data of downstream deep processing orders reflects that demand is lower than market expectations and the risk impact of overseas markets.At present,the impact of overseas market shocks on domestic production demand is not significant for the time being,and it is more of an emotional transmission.Once risk aversion is gradually released,there may be a technical recovery after a sharp decline in commodities.
At present,glass is still facing high inventory pressure,and downstream deep processing order data shows limited improvement in actual demand for glass.If the glass factory returns to the accumulation pace in the future,the disk will continue to be under pressure.
